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New Report Finds Retaliatory Tariffs Will Negate USMCA Export Gains

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

(North American Meat Institute)

Market access improvements included in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which are expected to increase U.S. agricultural exports by $450 million, mostly in the poultry and dairy sectors, will be offset by retaliatory measures taken by Canada and Mexico in response to the U.S.’s steel and aluminum import tariffs, according to a new analysis commissioned by the Farm Foundation.

Under the USMCA, meat product exports are projected to increase by 1.6 percent and the agreement is expected to produce modest benefits for U.S. farm income and labor demand. Retaliatory tariffs imposed by Canada and Mexico, however, could cause U.S. agricultural exports to these two key trading partners to decline by $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively. U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico would decline more than $9 billion and export revenue would fall $12 billion if the U.S. withdraws from the North American Free Trade Agreement without ratifying USMCA, the report concludes.

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