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Updated Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade Released

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

(North American Meat Institute)

USDA's Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Servicehave released updated forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in Fiscal Year 2015. Agricultural exports are forecast at $141.5 billion, down $2 billion from the November projection and $11 billion from Fiscal Year 2014. Most of the decline from the last forecast is a result of lower exports of high-value products, especially livestock, poultry and dairy, as well as horticultural products. Lower expected exports of livestock, poultry, dairy and hides and skins have reduced estimates by $1.9 billion. Beef projections are reduced $100 million to $6.5 billion on weaker demand due to higher U.S. prices and a stronger dollar. Pork is forecast down $700 million to $4.8 billion as a strong dollar reduces competitiveness, more than offsetting the impact of a moderation in prices.

Meanwhile, U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at a record $119.0 billion, up $3.0 billion from November, and $10.0 billion higher than in Fiscal Year 2014. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at $22.5 billion, which represents a decline from $43.3 billion in 2014, amounting to the smallest surplus since 2007.

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